LeleuFit
Find the race where you'll have your best day.
Race intelligence
v1.0
Race intelligence
Same fitness.
Twenty-eight minutes' difference.
Two questions, answered properly: which races suit you — and what you'd realistically finish in at each one.
One athlete · two 70.3 courses
Valencia
5:26
Nice
5:54
1,300 m climbing costs you 28 min
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Two questions. Answered properly.
01
We read your engine
FTP, swim CSS, run threshold, durability — typed in, or pulled straight from Garmin and Strava.
02
We read the course
Gradient, surface, turns, wind exposure and twenty years of race-day weather for every event in the calendar.
03
We put the two together
A ranked shortlist, a split-by-split finish prediction, and the honest reason each race suits you or doesn't.
No training plans, no coaching. LeleuFit only answers where to race and what you'll run there.
Create your athlete profile
Five minutes now. A shortlist you can actually enter at the end of it.
or with email
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Welcome back
Your forecasts have been recalculating while you were training.
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Which distance are you shopping for?
You can change this later — every distance gets its own shortlist.
Middle distance · 70.3
1.9 km · 90 km · 21.1 km
Full distance · 140.6
3.8 km · 180 km · 42.2 km
Olympic
1.5 km · 40 km · 10 km
Sprint
750 m · 20 km · 5 km
Connect your training, or type it in.
Connected athletes get forecasts that update every week. Manual entry works fine — it just won't move on its own.
Strava
Power, pace, volume
Garmin Connect
VO₂max, HRV, device data
TrainingPeaks
CTL, TSS, sessions
Read-only access. We never post, and your data is never used to train models without your consent.
Your engine, in six numbers.
Estimates are fine. Every one you sharpen tightens the forecast.
FTP
Functional threshold power
205W
Weight
Race weight, not winter weight
71kg
Swim CSS
Critical swim speed per 100 m
1:50/100
10 km run
Recent standalone time
48:10
Weekly volume
Average across the last 8 weeks
9.5hrs
VO₂max
Optional · from your watch
52
±7 min
Current forecast confidence. Add a previous race result to tighten it.
When, and how far will you travel?
Race window
Apr — Sep
2027
JFM AMJ JAS OND
Max travel from home
4 h flight
Drive only
Anywhere
Trip budget
$1,400
Entry only
No ceiling
Regions you'd race in
Southern Europe
UK & Ireland
Central Europe
Nordics
North America
What conditions do you race well in?
We'll weight the historical weather distribution of every race against this.
Heat tolerance
Poor in heat
Fades over 24°C
Thrives in 32°C
Swim you'd choose
Sheltered sea
Lake
Open ocean
River
Wetsuit-legal swims only
Filters out races where water is historically above 24.5°C
What kind of course do you want?
Be honest rather than aspirational — this is the biggest single driver of your finish time.
Bike terrain
Flat & fast
Pancake flat
Mountainous
Technical tolerance
Wide, simple roads
Some corners
Technical descents
Gravel sectors
Beginner-friendly fields only
Hides races with high DNF rates and very deep age-group fields
What would make it a good day?
This changes what we optimise for — a fast course isn't always the right course.
A personal best
Rank courses by predicted finish time
World Championship slot
Weight roll-down odds in my age group
Finish my first one
Forgiving cut-offs, low DNF rate
A proper trip
Destination, family, five good days
Have you raced one before?
One previous result does more for accuracy than every other input combined.
Age group
Qualification benchmarks
M40–44
Last 70.3
Staffordshire, June 2026
5:41
That day's swim
Wetsuit, lake, 18°C
37:20
That day's run
Faded badly in the last 7 km
1:52
Open-water races
Sea starts you've completed
3
Longest ride
In the last 12 weeks
112km
±4 min
Forecast confidence with your Staffordshire result included.
Working
Matching you against 214 races.
Modelling your swim, bike and run
Reading 214 course profiles
Pulling 20 years of race-day weather
Projecting your June fitness
Ranking your shortlist
Your shortlist is ready
Four races beat your Staffordshire time.
94
70.3 Valencia
Sat 22 May 2027
5:26
92
88
84
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Middle distance · M40–44
Max
MB
Best match · 70.3 Valencia · 22 May
5:26
± 8 min
Predicted at your projected May fitness. That's 15 minutes under Staffordshire.
Today
5:49
Race day
5:26
Best case
5:18
Fitness since March
Updated Tue
FTP
205 → 218 W
Swim CSS
1:50 → 1:45
10 km
48:10 → 45:30
Next best for you
See all 214
92
70.3 Mallorca
Sat 8 May · 890 m climb
5:34
88
70.3 Aix-en-Provence
Sun 6 Jun · 1,050 m climb
5:41
76
70.3 Nice
Sun 12 Sep · 1,300 m climb
5:54
Your 70.3s
Apr–Sep 2027 · 4 h of London · 18 races
Filter
Fit
Race
Time
PB
94
70.3 Valencia
22 May · Sea · 380 m
5:26
5:22–5:31
81%
92
70.3 Mallorca
8 May · Sea · 890 m
5:34
5:29–5:39
74%
88
70.3 Aix-en-Provence
6 Jun · Lake · 1,050 m
5:41
5:35–5:48
58%
83
70.3 Weymouth
19 Sep · Sea · 940 m
5:44
5:37–5:52
52%
76
70.3 Nice
12 Sep · Sea · 1,300 m
5:54
5:43–6:07
31%
72
70.3 Zell am See
29 Aug · Lake · 1,180 m
5:58
5:50–6:05
27%
69
70.3 Les Sables
27 Jun · Sea · 620 m
5:47
5:38–5:59
44%
61
70.3 Lanzarote
20 Mar · Ocean · 1,400 m
6:12
5:58–6:29
12%
Narrow it down
Reset
Distance
70.3
140.6
Olympic
Sprint
Max bike climbing
1,000 m
Only wetsuit-legal swims
Registration still open
Hide races over 26°C median
World Championship qualifiers only
Sat 22 May 2027 · Spain
70.3 Valencia
94
Fit
Your predicted finish
5:26
5:22–5:31
81%
PB odds
Split forecast
Course
Conditions
What-if
Why this one suits you
+9:20
Only 380 m of climbing. Your 2.9 W/kg rewards flat time-trialling over repeated climbs.
+4:10
Median race-day temperature 21°C. You lose 2.8% run pace above 26°C — only a 9% chance here.
+2:40
Sheltered harbour swim, wetsuit legal in 17 of the last 20 years. Matches your three sea starts.
–1:10
Deep M40–44 field — a slot needs roughly 5:09, which is outside your range.
Valencia · 22 May
How the day splits
Three separate models — swim, bike and run — at your projected 22 May fitness.
Swim · 1.9 km
Wetsuit, sheltered, 19°C water
34:40
± 2:10
T1
Long run to transition, 420 m
5:10
± 0:40
Bike · 90 km
380 m climb · IF 0.78 · 12 km/h NE wind
2:44
± 4:30
T2
Simple, one-lap transition
3:20
± 0:30
Run · 21.1 km
Flat, 3 laps, 21°C · durability applied
1:58
± 5:20
Most likely finish
5:26
± 8 min
Your standalone half-marathon is 1:41. Off 90 km at IF 0.78 we expect 1:58 — that gap is your durability, measured from Staffordshire.
Valencia · 22 May
The course
Bike elevation · 90 km
380 m · max 4.1%
0 km
Only real rise · km 62
90 km
Swim
WaterSalt · sheltered harbour
Mean temp19.4°C · wetsuit 17/20 yrs
StartRolling · low chop
Bike
SurfaceSmooth tarmac · wide
TechnicalityLow · 14 turns, 2 laps
WindExposed 18 km · NE 12 km/h
Run
Profile40 m · 3 laps, promenade
ShadeSparse · 62% exposed
Median air21°C · 58% humidity
Valencia · 22 May
What the day is likely to give you
Every 22 May since 1998, measured at the course — not a climate average.
Air temperature at 13:00
Median 21°C
14°C
22°C
30°C
What that means for you

You lose about 2.8% run pace above 26°C — measured across four of your own races. Here there's a 9% chance of that, worth roughly 3:20.

Wind
Prevailing NE, cross-tail on the return
12 km/h
Humidity
Coastal, steady through the day
58%
Water temperature
Wetsuit legal in 17 of the last 20
19.4°C
Rain on race day
Three wet editions since 1998
11%
Personal course advantage
Same you, same fitness, different roads.
Valencia
380 m · 21°C · sheltered
+11:00
Mallorca
890 m · 24°C · sea
+3:00
Weymouth
940 m · 17°C · choppy
–7:00
Aix-en-Provence
1,050 m · 26°C · lake
–4:00
Nice
1,300 m · 25°C · open sea
–17:00
Lanzarote
1,400 m · 28°C · wind
–35:00
46
Minutes between your best and worst course, at identical fitness. Choosing well is worth more than a winter of training.
Valencia · 22 May
What would it take?
5:26
5:14
12 minutes faster · PB odds 81% → 94%
FTP
232 W
+14
Worth 6:10 on this course
Race weight
69 kg
–2
Worth 1:05 — flat courses barely reward weight
Swim CSS
1:42
–3s
Worth 1:50
Run durability
+1 level
↑
Worth 2:55 — your biggest single lever
On your last two blocks you added 6 W per 12 weeks. +14 W by May is ambitious but not unreasonable.
Forecast history
Your Valencia time, week by week
24 wks out · 5:58
12 wks · 5:41
Race day · 5:26
What moved the number
TUE
FTP re-estimated at 218 W
From a 62-minute effort on Saturday's ride.
–3:10
9 MAR
Run volume down three weeks
Calf niggle. Durability estimate softened.
+2:40
24 FEB
Swim CSS improved to 1:47
Four sessions a week since January.
–1:50
2 FEB
Staffordshire result added
Confidence band narrowed from ±7 to ±4 min.
–4:20
Ask
Reads your numbers only
Could I break 5:30 at Nice?
At your projected May fitness, about a 29% chance. Nice costs you roughly 17 minutes against a flat course — 1,300 m of climbing and a 25°C median.
Valencia
68%
Aix-en-Provence
41%
Nice
29%
If 5:30 is the goal rather than Nice specifically, Valencia is the honest answer.
A September race my family would enjoy
Where do I qualify?
Shortlist
Three saved · entries close soonest first
70.3 Valencia
Sat 22 May 2027 · Spain
5:26
Fit 94
Entries close in 19 days · $429
Enter
70.3 Mallorca
Sat 8 May 2027 · Spain
5:34
Fit 92
Entries close in 46 days · $395
Enter
70.3 Weymouth
Sun 19 Sep 2027 · United Kingdom
5:44
Fit 83
Sold out · waitlist open
Waitlist
Decision

Valencia is 8 minutes faster for you than Mallorca and closes first. If you're entering one, enter that one.

MB
Max Bullard
M40–44 · London · Pro member
Your model
Fitness inputs
FTP 218 W · CSS 1:45 · 10 km 45:30
Race preferences
70.3 · Apr–Sep 2027 · 4 h travel · flat
Race history
1 result · Staffordshire 5:41
Connected sources
Strava · Garmin Connect
Objective
Personal best
Shortlist
3 saved races
Units
Metric · °C · USD
Subscription
Pro · $39/yr · renews 4 Feb 2027
±4
min
Your forecast confidence. Add a second race result to bring it under three minutes.
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